The San Antonio Spurs aim to continue an upward trajectory when they host the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. San Antonio is 7-2 in the last nine games, improving to 34-46 overall this season. Golden State is on a three-game winning streak with a 20-19 mark on the road and a 51-29 overall record. Romeo Langford (hamstring) is questionable for the Spurs, with Dejounte Murray (illness), Keldon Johnson (knee), Doug McDermott (ankle), Jakob Poeltl (back), and Devin Vassell (heel) ruled out. Stephen Curry (foot), Klay Thompson (rest), and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors, while Jordan Poole (hand) is questionable. Golden State is currently third in the West and is trying to hold off the Mavericks for the No. 3 seed. The Spurs have clinched a spot in the play-in and they’ll likely be the No. 10 seed.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 6.5-point favorite on the road for this 8:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 218.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Spurs odds. Before locking in any Spurs vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 25 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 84-54 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Spurs, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Spurs vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Spurs spread: Warriors -6.5
- Warriors vs. Spurs over-under: 218.5 points
- Warriors vs. Spurs money line: Warriors -270, Spurs +220
- GSW: The Warriors are 17-20-2 against the spread in road games
- SAS: The Spurs are 19-21 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State’s defense is dominant, and San Antonio has a glaring offensive weakness. The Spurs are No. 25 in the NBA in free throw attempts per game, and San Antonio is also near the bottom of the league in free throw accuracy. From there, the Warriors can capitalize with a top-three overall mark in defensive efficiency, allowing only 106.7 points per 100 possessions. Golden State is No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 43.9 percent, with opponents shooting only 51.0 percent on 2-point attempts and 33.9 percent on 3-point attempts.
The Warriors also allow only 22.9 assists per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and Golden State forces 14.6 turnovers per contest. Golden State is in the top five of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (73.7 percent), points allowed in the paint (44.0 per game), and steals (8.8 per game), with a top-10 mark in second-chance points allowed (12.7 per game).
Why the Spurs can cover
San Antonio’s point differential greatly outpaces its record for the season, and the Spurs have strong metrics on both ends. The Spurs lead the NBA in assists (28.1 per game) and assist-to-turnover ratio (21.9), with top-five marks in turnover rate (12.6 percent) and assist percentage (64.6 percent). San Antonio is scoring 53.6 points per game in the paint, No. 2 in the NBA, and the Spurs are in the top eight of the league in offensive rebound rate (28.3 percent) and second-chance points (14.4 per game).
The Spurs are also above-average in fast break points (13.6 per game) and field goal percentage (46.7 percent), and the Warriors are just No. 24 in the NBA in free throw prevention on defense. San Antonio’s defense ranks in the top 10 of the NBA in free throw prevention, assist prevention, fast break points allowed and blocked shots, with opponents shooting only 52.8 percent on 2-point attempts. Golden State is in the bottom five of the NBA in turnovers per game and free throw attempts per game on offense.
How to make Spurs vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.